FourChuan - Daily Market Intelligence

Daily Briefing

Updated May 24, 2026 10:00 PM TST

1 min read

S&P 7,473 closes the week +2.6% MoM - NVDA Q1 Wed May 28 the pin that resolves the AI re-rate. S&P 7,473 / Nasdaq 26,344 / Dow 50,580 closed Friday with the indices grinding new highs as the AMD-led growth scare from early May fully digested - the cycle bifurcation thesis collapsed as AMD itself reclaimed $467 (+175% off the May 6 $170 low) on MI400 sampling traction and a re-acceleration in the Taiwan order book. NVDA at $215 walks into Wed May 28 Q1 print with sell-side capex consensus at $46B Q2 (vs $42B prior bar) and Blackwell Ultra ramp commentary the structural binary. The cleanest read is that buyside positioning is full coming into the print - May 30 SPX straddle implies a 95 bp move on NVDA alone, but the asymmetry now cuts both ways. PLTR holds $137 (+22% off May 6), AVGO at $414 after the June 5 hyperscaler ASIC re-rate.

TAIEX 42,268 +5.3% from May 6 - TSMC ADR $404 retests April highs into the June quiet period. TAIEX closed Friday at 42,268, recovering all of the post-AMD gap and printing fresh closing highs as foreign desks reversed the May 6 -NT$24B sell into a +NT$58B cumulative two-week net-buy through May 22. TSMC ADR $404 sits 30% above the May 6 reaction low; the May 11 monthly print of NT$334B cleared the NT$330B reset-the-chase bar and locked in the multiple expansion that took 2330 back to NT$1,165 (split-adjusted equivalent of pre-AMD highs). Hon Hai 2317 cleared NT$220 on the May 14 Q1 +43% revenue print with GB300 rack-scale shipments at 38% of mix. The June quiet period that starts post-TSMC June 9 monthly removes the binary calendar - rotation into utilities (1101 Tai Cement, 2603 Evergreen Marine) emerges as the new positioning trade.

Brent $103.54 -3.6% on the week as PADD3 builds confirm $105 retest path; 10Y holds 4.30%. Brent settled $103.54 / WTI $96.60 with the energy complex giving back the May 1 spike entirely as PADD3 inventories printed two consecutive +1.8M / +1.2M builds and the Saudi-UAE June quota guidance came in dovish vs the cautious bar. The Iran sanction-snapback risk premium that priced through April is fully unwound. 10Y at 4.30% holds the post-NFP range tight; June FOMC pricing now embeds 1.7 cuts by Dec - the Powell Jackson Hole prep window starts in two weeks. DXY 98.10 with EURUSD 1.161 testing the May 8 highs; gold $4,523 fading from the $4,750 peak as the safety-bid unwinds.

USDJPY 159.17 weakens past pre-March stability range - BoJ June 18 meeting now the calendar tail. USDJPY pushed to 159.17 Friday, weakest since the carry-trade unwind cleared in mid-April; the move compounds on the rates rally (US 10Y holding 4.30% versus JGB 10Y 1.92% on the post-Q1 wage data dovish skew). Japan equities responded constructively - Nikkei 63,339 closed up +1.5% on the week led by exporters (Toyota, Honda, Sony) while domestic-demand names (KDDI, JR East) faded the strength. SoftBank at ¥6,039 reflects the Vision Fund OpenAI mark mark-up plus Arm royalty re-acceleration that landed May 6. The June 18 BoJ now the next domestic-policy binary - expect cautious hold but the JPY weakness past 160 forces verbal jawboning risk.

The Mon May 26 through Fri May 30 stack reorders entirely around NVDA Wed May 28 AHrs. Mon: US Memorial Day - cash markets closed; Asia/Europe open with the post-G7 finance ministers communique digestion. Tue: US Consumer Confidence + new home sales + Treasury 2Y/5Y auction; Salesforce/Box AHrs. Wed: NVDA Q1 AHrs the dominant binary - capex commentary, Blackwell Ultra ramp, China H20 license clarification. Thu: US Q1 GDP second print, claims, pending home sales; CRM/SNOW/COST AHrs (CRWD May 28). Fri: PCE deflator + UMich final + Chicago PMI - the inflation tail into the June 17-18 FOMC window. Asia: Japan May CPI Fri, Korea BoK Thursday. The bifurcation trade has fully unwound; the new positioning question is whether buyside takes profits ahead of NVDA or chases the print.

This summary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Market Sentiment

Greed

Fed Funds Rate

4.50% On hold

Cut path lifts to 1.7 by Dec; PCE Fri + NVDA Wed reset the bar

US 10Y Treasury

4.30% -3 bps

Holds range tight ahead of NVDA Wed + PCE Fri

VIX Volatility

14.20 -0.85

Compressed pre-NVDA; May 30 SPX straddle implies 95 bp NVDA move

DXY (US Dollar)

98.10 +0.24

JPY 159 weakness lifts the basket; BoJ June 18 the tail

Market News

NVDA Q1 Wed May 28 - $46B Q2 Guide Now the Bar, Blackwell Ultra Ramp the Tell

FourChuanMay 24

NVDA at $215 walks into Wednesday May 28 AHrs Q1 with sell-side capex consensus pushed to $46B Q2 (vs $42B prior comfort line) on the post-AMD recovery tape. Blackwell Ultra ramp commentary is the structural binary - hyperscaler validation timeline needs to confirm second-half 2026 production scale to clear the $230 reaction line. China H20 license clarification the secondary leg after Trump comments April 30 reopened the export carve-out debate. May 30 SPX straddle implies a 95 bp move on NVDA alone; buyside positioning sits crowded long versus April lows. Asymmetry cuts both ways - the chase requires Q2 guide above $46B, the sell starts sub-$43B.

AIEarnings

S&P 7,473 Closes Week +1.4% - Indices Print New Highs as AMD Recovery Caps Bifurcation Unwind

FourChuanMay 24

S&P 500 closed Friday 7,473 / Nasdaq 26,344 / Dow 50,580 with the indices grinding fresh closing highs as the cycle-bifurcation thesis from early May collapsed - AMD itself reclaimed $467 (+175% off the post-print $170 low) on MI400 sampling traction and visible orderbook acceleration through the Taiwan ODM channel. PLTR holds $137, AVGO at $414, AAPL $309. May ended with the SPX +6.2% MoM, the AI complex re-engaged from defensive software back to accelerator hardware. Buyside positioning now full into NVDA Wednesday print - take-profits behavior versus chase-into-print becomes the next-week binary as the catalyst calendar empties into mid-June.

VolMacro

10Y Holds 4.30% Pre-PCE Friday - June FOMC Pricing Embeds 1.7 Cuts by Dec

FourChuanMay 24

10Y at 4.30% holds the post-NFP range tight ahead of Friday May 30 PCE deflator - consensus +0.21% MoM core, +2.66% YoY. June FOMC pricing now embeds 1.7 cuts by Dec, up from 1.5 a week ago as cooler ISM Services 47.4 and softer ADP +114k confirmed the May 6 dovish skew. Jackson Hole prep window starts in 14 days; Powell remarks the next leg of the rates re-rate. Treasury 2Y/5Y auction Tue tests demand against the new dovish bar; soft demand cracks 4.25%, sloppy tails confirm range-trade through June.

RatesMacro

Brent $103.54 -3.6% Weekly as PADD3 Builds Confirm $105 Retest Path Held

FourChuanMay 24

Brent settled $103.54 / WTI $96.60 with the energy complex giving back the May 1 spike entirely - two consecutive +1.8M/+1.2M PADD3 builds confirmed the $105 retest call and the Iran sanction-snapback premium has fully unwound. Saudi-UAE June quota guidance came in dovish vs cautious bar, with OPEC+ June 12 meeting now expected to roll over current quotas through 3Q. Refiner cracks tightening to $14.20 from $18.50 at the May 1 spike - utility cluster (Tepco/Kansai) re-engages the fuel-cost relief leg. Brent below $100 the next swing if PCE Friday confirms the dovish skew.

EnergyMacro

CRM/SNOW/COST AHrs Thursday - Software Margins the Read After PLTR/MSFT Cycle Set

FourChuanMay 23

Salesforce Tuesday AHrs leads the enterprise-software stack with consensus $9.78B Q1 revenue, +37% Agentforce ARR growth, FY27 operating margin guide at 33% the structural binary. Snowflake AHrs Thursday alongside Costco - SNOW consumption-revenue growth +28% YoY pre-print versus pre-AI peers (Databricks tender at 90x ARR sets the comp ceiling). CRWD Wed May 28 fiscal Q1 walks behind NVDA print into a softer enterprise tape - Falcon Flex consumption +44% the FY27 ARR raise lever. The AI software leg held its bid through May; the question is whether mid-cycle SaaS multiples (CRM at 22x FY27 EPS) catch a bid as the Mag 7 chase resolves.

EarningsMacro

PCE Friday +0.21% Core MoM Consensus - Powell Jackson Hole Window Opens in Two Weeks

FourChuanMay 23

Friday May 30 PCE deflator consensus +0.21% MoM core, +2.66% YoY; soft print (sub-+0.18%) confirms the 1.7-cut path and extends the rates rally through June 17-18 FOMC. Hot tail (+0.28%+) cracks the dovish skew and forces a Jackson Hole pivot in messaging - Powell remarks Friday August 9. Q1 GDP second print Thursday +1.7% expected to confirm slowdown; consumer confidence Tuesday the consumption-side leg. The post-NVDA Wed tape walks into PCE Friday with hedge demand shifted to long-gamma June puts as the macro binary stack reloads. SPX VIX at 14.2 the lowest since April.

MacroVol

TAIEX 42,268 Closes Fresh Highs +5.3% From May 6 - Foreign Net-Buy +NT$58B Two-Week

FourChuanMay 24

TAIEX closed Friday 42,268 fresh closing highs, +5.3% off the May 6 reaction low of 40,142 and +0.9% on the week. Foreign desks reversed the May 6 -NT$24B sell into a +NT$58B cumulative two-week net-buy through Friday close. Chip-equipment cluster fully recovered with 3443 Global Unichip +12%, 3661 Wiwynn +14%, 6285 +10% from the May 6 lows; the May 11 monthly print of NT$334B cleared the NT$330B reset-the-chase bar and locked in the multiple re-rating. The post-Q1 print cluster cleared cleanly - Largan, Formosa Pet, ASE, Hon Hai all printed in-line to above on the May 8-14 window. Rotation into utilities (1101, 1102) and shipping (2603) emerges as June quiet-period positioning.

TaiwanTAIEX

TSMC ADR $404 +30% From May 6 Low - June 9 Monthly the Next Confirm Print

FourChuanMay 24

TSMC ADR closed Friday $404.52, +30% from the May 6 $311 reaction low after the May 11 monthly print of NT$334B cleared the reset-the-chase bar and the May 14 Q1 confirmed through-cycle pricing leverage holding +57% gross margin. The June 9 monthly print is the next confirm leg into the typical mid-summer slowdown narrative - sell-side bar at NT$320B+ to maintain the trajectory. Multiple expanded to 21.4x FY27 EPS, the AVGO discount fully recovered. ASML earnings cross-read positive for 2026 capex - the WFE re-rate that the AMD scare paused is now back online. The June quiet period that starts post-print removes the binary calendar - sell-side EPS revisions running +4% on the morning scrub.

TaiwanTSMC

USDTWD 31.49 Settles Tight Range - CBC Verbal Window Stays Closed Through June

FourChuanMay 24

USDTWD closed Friday 31.49 holding the 31.30-31.60 range tight through the past two weeks; CBC verbal-intervention probability stays sub-30% as the sub-31 line moves further away and exporters absorb the translation tailwind without triggering political concern. The two-week foreign +NT$58B net-buy ran predominantly through bank-funded NTD-NTD vs USD inflow channel - direct USD pressure on the local muted. Q2 print stack (Hon Hai, Largan, Formosa Pet) all hit pegged FX at 31.45 - margin guides for FY27 raise risk now skewed to upside. Hot PCE Friday US side cracks 31.60 and turns the FX leg into a +tailwind for the AI export complex through June.

TaiwanFX

Foreign Net-Buy +NT$58B Cumulative Through May 22 - AI Re-Rate Re-Engaged

FourChuanMay 24

Foreign investors logged +NT$58B cumulative net-buy through Friday close, the cleanest reversal off the May 6 -NT$24B day since the post-COVID flow inflection point. The bid concentrated in 2330 TSMC (+NT$28B), 2317 Hon Hai (+NT$11B), 3661 Wiwynn (+NT$5B) - the AI complex re-rate re-engaged with the post-AMD recovery. Local funds adding modest +NT$8B over the same window and proprietary dealers turned net-sellers -NT$12B taking profits into the rally. The five-day rolling average runs +NT$8B per session vs the May 1-6 +NT$14B mechanical surge bar - flow stabilized, not euphoric. June quiet-period positioning the next test.

TaiwanFlows

Hon Hai Cleared NT$220 on May 14 Q1 +43% Revenue Print - GB300 Mix 38%

FourChuanMay 24

Hon Hai cleared NT$220 on the May 14 Q1 print delivering +43% YoY revenue and gross margin expanding 90 bps to 7.4% - GB300 rack-scale shipments printed 38% of mix (vs 18% one year ago) confirming the cleanest defensive AI long thesis through the bifurcation episode. Sell-side raised FY27 EPS +6% on the morning; multiple now 14.5x FY27 EPS, still 2 turns below 2330 but the rerating call has substantially landed. NVDA Wed May 28 Q1 the next read-through binary - GB200/GB300 forward order book commentary the swing factor. Setup constructive into the June quiet period as the H2 capacity ramp visibility crystallizes.

TaiwanAI

SoftBank ¥6,039 Holds Post-Q4 Arm Royalty Re-Accel - OpenAI Mark Drives NAV Discount Narrowing

FourChuanMay 24

SoftBank closed Friday ¥6,039, holding the post-May 6 Q4 print structural re-rate as Arm v9 attach-rate confirmed 2.4x v8 (vs 2.0x bar) and the May 28 NVDA Q1 cross-read sets the next leg. Vision Fund OpenAI mark cycled up to $510B on the May 17 tertiary print - NAV discount narrowed to 38% from 45% at the start of May, the lowest since the carry-trade unwind window cleared. Masa commentary on the call confirmed $30B incremental AI infra commitments through 2027. The leg of the global AI tape that runs through Tokyo - SoftBank/TEL/Advantest - all re-engaged with the broader complex; the JPY 159 weakness adds translation tailwind.

JapanAI

Nikkei 63,339 +8.4% From May 6 Low - Exporters Lead as JPY Pushes Past 159

FourChuanMay 24

Nikkei closed Friday 63,339 fresh closing highs, +8.4% from the May 6 reaction low of 58,419 and +1.5% on the week. Exporters led the move with Toyota +6.2% MoM, Honda +5.8%, Sony 6758 ¥3,554 after Q4 capital return commentary May 13. Chip-equipment cluster fully recovered with 8035 TEL at ¥48,800 +9.8% off lows. The JPY weakness past 159.17 - the weakest since carry-trade unwind cleared in April - compounds the translation leg through Q2 results window. JGB 10Y at 1.92% holds the post-wage-data dovish skew; the June 18 BoJ meeting now the next domestic-policy binary with verbal-intervention risk if 160 cracks.

JapanNikkei

Sony Cleared FY27 ¥22,300 EPS Guide on May 13 Q4 - Sensor Mix + ¥600B Buyback Lift

FourChuanMay 24

Sony delivered on the May 13 Q4 print with FY27 EPS guide ¥22,300 (vs ¥21,500 consensus / ¥21,800 buyside) on image-sensor mix +8 pts and PS Plus Premium subs +16% YoY. Capital return announced ¥600B buyback over three years (vs ¥400B comp set bar) - the optionality leg landed cleanly. Stock holds ¥3,554 +9% from pre-print levels with multiple expanding to 19x FY27 EPS, the highest since pre-COVID. The print confirms the defensive AI-adjacent thesis - image-sensor capacity locked through 2027, iPhone 17 cycle volume cross-read positive from AAPL Q2. KDDI May 13 print delivered ¥1.2T buyback the cleanest domestic comp.

JapanEarnings

Tepco/Kansai Cleared Q1 Guides on Input-Cost Relief - Brent $103 Locks the Trajectory

FourChuanMay 23

The utility cluster delivered on the May 14-16 prints: Tepco FY27 EPS revision +4% vs consensus on input-cost relief, Kansai +3%, Chubu in-line. Brent settling $103.54 versus the Monday May 1 spike at $109.54 locks the trajectory of fuel-cost normalization through Q2 results. The June METI rate-review window remains the structural binary - any pass-through reduction would compress FY28 EPS upside, but current sell-side bar embeds neutral assumption. Tepco at ¥1,028 +12% off the May 1 low cleanest expression of the energy-demand-side scare unwind in the domestic complex.

JapanEnergy

BoJ June 18 Now the Tail - USDJPY 159.17 Forces Verbal Jawboning Risk Above 160

FourChuanMay 24

USDJPY pushed to 159.17 Friday close - the weakest since the carry-trade unwind cleared in mid-April - as the rates rally (US 10Y 4.30% vs JGB 10Y 1.92%) re-widens the carry spread that briefly compressed through the May 6 growth scare. The June 18 BoJ meeting now the calendar tail with consensus expecting cautious hold but 160 break triggers MoF/BoJ verbal-intervention reactivation risk. Cool Q1 wage data on May 9 (+2.4% vs +2.6% bar) confirmed the dovish skew and pushed Dec cut probability higher - the BoJ now needs to balance FX volatility against the policy normalization path. Friday May 30 PCE the next FX swing.

JapanRates